Geopolitical Fault Lines and Energy Vulnerability: A Multidimensional Framework for Assessing Energy Security in an Era of Strategic Competition

Abstract

Energy security has emerged as one of the most contested arenas of contemporary international relations, shaped increasingly by the interplay of geopolitical rivalries, regional conflicts, and shifting power configurations. This paper develops a Geopolitical–Energy Vulnerability Framework (GEVF) to systematically analyse how geopolitical dynamics translate into measurable vulnerabilities within national and regional energy systems. Drawing on political science theory, international relations literature, and empirical evidence from three major case studies—the Russia–Ukraine conflict and European energy disruption, the strategic energy competition in the Indo-Pacific, and the Gulf Cooperation Council's evolving security architecture—the paper argues that energy insecurity is not merely a technical or market-driven phenomenon but a deeply political one, structured by alliance configurations, resource nationalism, sanctions regimes, and infrastructure warfare. The GEVF integrates four analytical dimensions: supply-chain geopoliticisation, infrastructural vulnerability, alliance-based energy diplomacy, and transition-related risk redistribution. The findings reveal that states with high geopolitical exposure and limited energy diversification face compounded vulnerabilities, while multilateral energy governance mechanisms remain structurally insufficient to absorb geopolitical shocks. The paper concludes with policy prescriptions for building geopolitically resilient energy architectures in an era of strategic competition.